Why lead times stay long even though the chip crisis is "over"

The acute allocation period of 2021–2022 is behind us, but three structural pressures have replaced it, and none of them resolve quickly.

  • Memory pricing. Contract prices for DRAM and NAND rose sharply through 2026 as AI data-centre demand absorbed fab capacity. Every PLC processor, HMI panel and drive control board carries memory, and memory cost increases pass straight through to automation pricing and allocation priority.
  • Allocation still prioritises new equipment. When supply is tight, OEMs schedule new-machine orders ahead of MRO spare part orders. A plant ordering one module competes with a machine builder ordering hundreds.
  • Tariffs and trade friction. Import duties on automation equipment in several major markets have added both cost and administrative delay to cross-border supply, which is exactly the channel most spare parts travel through.

The result is a two-speed market: parts still in production arrive in weeks or months, while parts at or past end of life may not arrive at all through the manufacturer channel. Those are different problems requiring different strategies, and treating them as one is where most planning goes wrong.

2026 lead time benchmarks by category

The ranges below consolidate published MRO market reporting for late 2026. Treat them as planning bands rather than quotations — your own distributor's allocation for your specific part number is the only number that binds.

Category Typical brands Indicative lead time Trend
Industrial robots Fanuc, ABB, KUKA, Yaskawa 12–20 weeks Rising
PLCs and controllers Rockwell / Allen-Bradley, Siemens, Schneider 10–20 weeks Moderate increase
HMIs and operator panels Siemens, Rockwell, Emerson, Schneider 8–16 weeks Moderate increase
Drives and inverters ABB, Siemens, Danfoss, Schneider 10–26 weeks Rising
Servo drives and motion ABB, Fanuc, Yaskawa, Mitsubishi 16–24 weeks Constrained
Industrial sensors ifm, SICK, Pepperl+Fuchs, Balluff 12–21 weeks Rising
Motors and encoders Rockwell, Schneider, WEG 8–14 weeks Stable to rising
Machinery protection hardware Bently Nevada 18–26 weeks Persistently long

Two details in that table deserve attention. First, drives and servo systems are the slowest mainstream categories — power electronics remain the tightest part of the chain, and a failed drive is rarely something a plant can work around. Second, "10–20 weeks" for controllers hides enormous variation: a common digital I/O module and a specialised analogue or communication module from the same family can differ by a factor of three.

The hidden number: your own allocation

Published ranges describe the market, not your account. If you have a long-standing distributor relationship and a forecast on file, your lead time may sit at the fast end of the band. If you buy occasionally and reactively, expect the slow end. Allocation priority is negotiated months before you need the part — which is the entire argument for planning spares ahead of failure.

End-of-life deadlines in the same window

Long lead times are bad. Long lead times on a product that is simultaneously reaching end of life are worse, because the delay can cross the deadline. These are the milestones published for the second half of 2026 and into 2027 across the major brands:

Brand Product line Milestone Successor or note
Schneider Electric Altivar 61 variable frequency drives Mid 2026 Altivar Process ATV600 / ATV900
Rockwell / Allen-Bradley PanelView Plus 6 graphic terminals Mid 2026 PanelView Plus 7, PanelView 5310
Siemens SIMATIC HMI Comfort Panels September 2026 Unified Comfort Panels with WinCC Unified
Schneider Electric APC NetBotz sensor accessories August 2026 Current generation NetBotz sensors
Rockwell / Allen-Bradley 1794 FLEX DeviceNet adapters August 2026 FLEX 5000 / EtherNet/IP migration
Siemens SIRIUS 3UG4 monitoring relays August 2026 SIRIUS 3UG5
Emerson OMD automatic transfer switches October 2026 TruCONTROL 2.0
Honeywell Experion PKS R520 December 2026 Latest supported PKS release
Honeywell HW3.2 collaborative robots December 2026 TM S Series
Emerson Rosemount 3051S Wireless October 2027 Current 3051S platform

Always confirm milestones against your own order number and the manufacturer's lifecycle notice. Published summaries compress dates, and variants within one family frequently reach different milestones at different times.

What to change in your planning

Nothing in the table above is actionable on its own. What makes it useful is applying it to your own installed base in a structured way.

1. Get exact part numbers onto every critical asset

A large share of sourcing delay is not factory capacity — it is incomplete information on the buyer side. A purchase order that says "Siemens PLC" will bounce back for clarification while someone walks to the panel with a torch. A purchase order that quotes the full order number with revision suffix is quotable the same day. Build that list while the equipment is still running.

2. Tier your inventory by consequence, not by price

Classify every critical item into three tiers: long lead and production-stopping, moderate lead and line-limiting, and short lead with alternatives available. Invest shelf stock only in the first tier, negotiate consignment or vendor-managed stock for the second, and buy the third reactively. Most plants discover this tiering only after an incident — doing it deliberately is cheaper.

3. Qualify a second source before you need it

For critical part numbers, identify an independent supplier with verified condition grading and traceability while your line is still running. Vetting a supplier during a breakdown is how plants end up buying counterfeit or misdescribed stock — the pressure to accept vague answers is highest exactly when the risk is greatest.

4. Treat end-of-life dates as purchase deadlines

If a product on your floor has a milestone inside the next twelve months, the decision point is now, not the next budget cycle. Either secure spares while the channel still exists, or schedule the migration into a planned shutdown. Waiting converts a procurement decision into an emergency.

How Austinovo can help

We hold and source spare parts across Rockwell / Allen-Bradley, Schneider Electric, ABB, Siemens, Emerson, Omron, Mitsubishi and others — not only the brands featured elsewhere on this site. Send us your order numbers and we will confirm actual availability and realistic delivery time, including for part numbers that authorised channels no longer stock.

If you are working through a lifecycle review, we can take your installed-base list and return a view of which items still have a manufacturer channel, which are stock-only, and which are heading toward end of life.

Need a realistic lead time?

Send us your order numbers. We confirm actual stock and delivery time within 24 hours — including for obsolete part numbers.

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